What is the draw frequency for 3 consecutive games (same players; amateur level)?What is the proper way to...

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What is the draw frequency for 3 consecutive games (same players; amateur level)?

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What is the draw frequency for 3 consecutive games (same players; amateur level)?


What is the proper way to ask for a draw?In encountering a draw by [x number of moves], when does the draw actually occur?Are world-class correspondence games more likely to be drawn than world class OTB games?For long OTB games, what is the percentage of players who have a rating which is below X FIDE Elo?What are some common statistical analyses we can run on many games (~20k games)?What is the percent of players in the top X that are women for different values of X?Why do some players never accept a draw offer?What is the number of chess position for each move?Are there statistics on the results of armageddon games at the GM level?What makes game 5 of the World Championship a draw?













1















In Mr. Robot (TV series) episode "eps2.2_init_1.asec", Elliot and Mr. Robot drew 3 consecutive chess games. They remark it's impossible.




The odds of that are Impossible.




As far as TV shows go, Mr. Robot is known for its technical accuracy. I was surprised when I heard that line, so I fact-checked it:



From Wikipedia:




[Frequency of draws] is currently "holding pretty steady around 50%, and is only increasing at a very slow rate".




I understand that figure is for top-level tournaments, not 3 consecutive games from the same 2 players. Is there are any accuracy to that statement in the show? If not, is it different from the 50% rate for top-level players?










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joe is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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  • Just to be clear: Mr. Robot is a person, and not some superhuman android or something?

    – D M
    31 mins ago











  • According to Wikipedia, Mr.Robot is a human being who is a computer genius. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Robot

    – Rewan Demontay
    15 mins ago
















1















In Mr. Robot (TV series) episode "eps2.2_init_1.asec", Elliot and Mr. Robot drew 3 consecutive chess games. They remark it's impossible.




The odds of that are Impossible.




As far as TV shows go, Mr. Robot is known for its technical accuracy. I was surprised when I heard that line, so I fact-checked it:



From Wikipedia:




[Frequency of draws] is currently "holding pretty steady around 50%, and is only increasing at a very slow rate".




I understand that figure is for top-level tournaments, not 3 consecutive games from the same 2 players. Is there are any accuracy to that statement in the show? If not, is it different from the 50% rate for top-level players?










share|improve this question







New contributor




joe is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.





















  • Just to be clear: Mr. Robot is a person, and not some superhuman android or something?

    – D M
    31 mins ago











  • According to Wikipedia, Mr.Robot is a human being who is a computer genius. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Robot

    – Rewan Demontay
    15 mins ago














1












1








1








In Mr. Robot (TV series) episode "eps2.2_init_1.asec", Elliot and Mr. Robot drew 3 consecutive chess games. They remark it's impossible.




The odds of that are Impossible.




As far as TV shows go, Mr. Robot is known for its technical accuracy. I was surprised when I heard that line, so I fact-checked it:



From Wikipedia:




[Frequency of draws] is currently "holding pretty steady around 50%, and is only increasing at a very slow rate".




I understand that figure is for top-level tournaments, not 3 consecutive games from the same 2 players. Is there are any accuracy to that statement in the show? If not, is it different from the 50% rate for top-level players?










share|improve this question







New contributor




joe is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.












In Mr. Robot (TV series) episode "eps2.2_init_1.asec", Elliot and Mr. Robot drew 3 consecutive chess games. They remark it's impossible.




The odds of that are Impossible.




As far as TV shows go, Mr. Robot is known for its technical accuracy. I was surprised when I heard that line, so I fact-checked it:



From Wikipedia:




[Frequency of draws] is currently "holding pretty steady around 50%, and is only increasing at a very slow rate".




I understand that figure is for top-level tournaments, not 3 consecutive games from the same 2 players. Is there are any accuracy to that statement in the show? If not, is it different from the 50% rate for top-level players?







draw statistics






share|improve this question







New contributor




joe is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.











share|improve this question







New contributor




joe is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.









share|improve this question




share|improve this question






New contributor




joe is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.









asked 3 hours ago









joejoe

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61




New contributor




joe is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.





New contributor





joe is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.






joe is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.













  • Just to be clear: Mr. Robot is a person, and not some superhuman android or something?

    – D M
    31 mins ago











  • According to Wikipedia, Mr.Robot is a human being who is a computer genius. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Robot

    – Rewan Demontay
    15 mins ago



















  • Just to be clear: Mr. Robot is a person, and not some superhuman android or something?

    – D M
    31 mins ago











  • According to Wikipedia, Mr.Robot is a human being who is a computer genius. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Robot

    – Rewan Demontay
    15 mins ago

















Just to be clear: Mr. Robot is a person, and not some superhuman android or something?

– D M
31 mins ago





Just to be clear: Mr. Robot is a person, and not some superhuman android or something?

– D M
31 mins ago













According to Wikipedia, Mr.Robot is a human being who is a computer genius. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Robot

– Rewan Demontay
15 mins ago





According to Wikipedia, Mr.Robot is a human being who is a computer genius. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Robot

– Rewan Demontay
15 mins ago










1 Answer
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oldest

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2














Definitely not impossible! It is true that draws are less frequent in amateur chess, and it is also true that draws are less frequent for faster games (how fast was the game in the show?), but even so, let's say that for a blitz game between evenly matched amateurs the draw frequency were 5%, or 1/20. If you played three games, the odds of playing three draws would be 1/8000, which while unlikely, is hardly "impossible". This is assuming that the probabilities are independent, which may not be entirely true but I think is close enough for a rough estimate.



I don't have an academic citation, but if you want some stats for online games you can look at the Lichess opening book: https://lichess.org/analysis . Normally it shows master-level games, but if you click on the settings you can chose to look at Lichess games instead, and filter by rating and time control. For blitz games at rating 1600, the draw frequency is 4-5%, depending on the opening move (the draw is the small gray stripe without a percentage, so you have to compute it by difference):



enter image description here



For the highest ratings, it's closer to 10% for blitz. And for classical chess, as you know, it's about 50% for top-level chess. For amateur chess I'd say maybe 10-20% but it depends on which level of amateur we are talking about. I won't cite the Lichess stats here because even though they have a "classical" category, it's really what would called rapid in over-the-board tournaments (30 min games in Lichess; OTB classical is usually 2 hours or more).






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  • lol this is exactly what I was going to do. Have an upvote!

    – Brandon_J
    15 mins ago











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1 Answer
1






active

oldest

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1 Answer
1






active

oldest

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active

oldest

votes






active

oldest

votes









2














Definitely not impossible! It is true that draws are less frequent in amateur chess, and it is also true that draws are less frequent for faster games (how fast was the game in the show?), but even so, let's say that for a blitz game between evenly matched amateurs the draw frequency were 5%, or 1/20. If you played three games, the odds of playing three draws would be 1/8000, which while unlikely, is hardly "impossible". This is assuming that the probabilities are independent, which may not be entirely true but I think is close enough for a rough estimate.



I don't have an academic citation, but if you want some stats for online games you can look at the Lichess opening book: https://lichess.org/analysis . Normally it shows master-level games, but if you click on the settings you can chose to look at Lichess games instead, and filter by rating and time control. For blitz games at rating 1600, the draw frequency is 4-5%, depending on the opening move (the draw is the small gray stripe without a percentage, so you have to compute it by difference):



enter image description here



For the highest ratings, it's closer to 10% for blitz. And for classical chess, as you know, it's about 50% for top-level chess. For amateur chess I'd say maybe 10-20% but it depends on which level of amateur we are talking about. I won't cite the Lichess stats here because even though they have a "classical" category, it's really what would called rapid in over-the-board tournaments (30 min games in Lichess; OTB classical is usually 2 hours or more).






share|improve this answer


























  • lol this is exactly what I was going to do. Have an upvote!

    – Brandon_J
    15 mins ago
















2














Definitely not impossible! It is true that draws are less frequent in amateur chess, and it is also true that draws are less frequent for faster games (how fast was the game in the show?), but even so, let's say that for a blitz game between evenly matched amateurs the draw frequency were 5%, or 1/20. If you played three games, the odds of playing three draws would be 1/8000, which while unlikely, is hardly "impossible". This is assuming that the probabilities are independent, which may not be entirely true but I think is close enough for a rough estimate.



I don't have an academic citation, but if you want some stats for online games you can look at the Lichess opening book: https://lichess.org/analysis . Normally it shows master-level games, but if you click on the settings you can chose to look at Lichess games instead, and filter by rating and time control. For blitz games at rating 1600, the draw frequency is 4-5%, depending on the opening move (the draw is the small gray stripe without a percentage, so you have to compute it by difference):



enter image description here



For the highest ratings, it's closer to 10% for blitz. And for classical chess, as you know, it's about 50% for top-level chess. For amateur chess I'd say maybe 10-20% but it depends on which level of amateur we are talking about. I won't cite the Lichess stats here because even though they have a "classical" category, it's really what would called rapid in over-the-board tournaments (30 min games in Lichess; OTB classical is usually 2 hours or more).






share|improve this answer


























  • lol this is exactly what I was going to do. Have an upvote!

    – Brandon_J
    15 mins ago














2












2








2







Definitely not impossible! It is true that draws are less frequent in amateur chess, and it is also true that draws are less frequent for faster games (how fast was the game in the show?), but even so, let's say that for a blitz game between evenly matched amateurs the draw frequency were 5%, or 1/20. If you played three games, the odds of playing three draws would be 1/8000, which while unlikely, is hardly "impossible". This is assuming that the probabilities are independent, which may not be entirely true but I think is close enough for a rough estimate.



I don't have an academic citation, but if you want some stats for online games you can look at the Lichess opening book: https://lichess.org/analysis . Normally it shows master-level games, but if you click on the settings you can chose to look at Lichess games instead, and filter by rating and time control. For blitz games at rating 1600, the draw frequency is 4-5%, depending on the opening move (the draw is the small gray stripe without a percentage, so you have to compute it by difference):



enter image description here



For the highest ratings, it's closer to 10% for blitz. And for classical chess, as you know, it's about 50% for top-level chess. For amateur chess I'd say maybe 10-20% but it depends on which level of amateur we are talking about. I won't cite the Lichess stats here because even though they have a "classical" category, it's really what would called rapid in over-the-board tournaments (30 min games in Lichess; OTB classical is usually 2 hours or more).






share|improve this answer















Definitely not impossible! It is true that draws are less frequent in amateur chess, and it is also true that draws are less frequent for faster games (how fast was the game in the show?), but even so, let's say that for a blitz game between evenly matched amateurs the draw frequency were 5%, or 1/20. If you played three games, the odds of playing three draws would be 1/8000, which while unlikely, is hardly "impossible". This is assuming that the probabilities are independent, which may not be entirely true but I think is close enough for a rough estimate.



I don't have an academic citation, but if you want some stats for online games you can look at the Lichess opening book: https://lichess.org/analysis . Normally it shows master-level games, but if you click on the settings you can chose to look at Lichess games instead, and filter by rating and time control. For blitz games at rating 1600, the draw frequency is 4-5%, depending on the opening move (the draw is the small gray stripe without a percentage, so you have to compute it by difference):



enter image description here



For the highest ratings, it's closer to 10% for blitz. And for classical chess, as you know, it's about 50% for top-level chess. For amateur chess I'd say maybe 10-20% but it depends on which level of amateur we are talking about. I won't cite the Lichess stats here because even though they have a "classical" category, it's really what would called rapid in over-the-board tournaments (30 min games in Lichess; OTB classical is usually 2 hours or more).







share|improve this answer














share|improve this answer



share|improve this answer








edited 1 hour ago

























answered 1 hour ago









itubitub

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  • lol this is exactly what I was going to do. Have an upvote!

    – Brandon_J
    15 mins ago



















  • lol this is exactly what I was going to do. Have an upvote!

    – Brandon_J
    15 mins ago

















lol this is exactly what I was going to do. Have an upvote!

– Brandon_J
15 mins ago





lol this is exactly what I was going to do. Have an upvote!

– Brandon_J
15 mins ago










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